Political Crisis initiated by the regime of Alexander Lukashenka. Polish-Belarusian border brief - update by 27 December 2021
28.12.2021
The threats posed by Moscow and Minsk have increased sharply in the last couple of months. The actions taken by these two regimes, where the latter is obsequious to the former, take the heaviest toll on Central and Eastern Europe countries.
A hybrid operation of A. Lukashenko and W. Putin against the European Union is ongoing. Concerns are also growing that Russia may step up its aggression against Ukraine. There is a common denominator of all these events - Russia's growing hostility against the West.
Poland remains at present the prime target of a massive influx of migrants orchestrated by the regime of A. Lukashenko. Earlier this year, the focus of Lukashenko's hybrid operation was Lithuania and Latvia, but that focus has shifted.
The use of migrants as weapons by the regime of A. Lukashenko is only an element of a wider plan. The aim is to create divisions among NATO and EU states and societies and deepen them later on.
Despite the recent decrease in the number of migrants illegally crossing the Polish-Belarusian border, the situation at the Polish-Belarusian border remains difficult, which is due to cynical actions of the Lukashenko’s regime. The groups attempting to cross the border illegally are now usually smaller in size but are still supervised and coordinated by the Belarusian services which use laser and flashlights to distract and provoke. Fewer attempts to cross the border illegally do not mean that the operation of the Belarusian services has ended. We must to remain vigilant. The cynical and brutal action undertaken by Belarusian services directly led by A. Lukashenko is a silent revenge for support to the Belarusian opposition.
During the Christmas weekend, the Polish Border Guard recorded 122 attempts to cross the Polish-Belarusian border illegally. Since the beginning of December 2021, 1.500 attempts to cross the Polish-Belarusian border illegally have been recorded and since the beginning of the current year (2021), there were 39.500 of such attempts. (For comparison, throughout the previous year (2020) there were only 120 such attempts).
In this year (2021):
- in December – over 1.200 attempts to illegally cross the border were recorded;
- in November – near 8.900 attempts;
- in October – over 17.400 attempts;
- in September – near 7.700 attempts;
- in Agust – over 3.500 attempts.
- RECENT BORDER INCIDENTS:
- 24.12.2021 – in the vicinity of Czeremcha an attempt to cross the border by a group of 10 foreigners was prevented. The group stayed on the Belarusian side of the border and then retreated into the Belarusian territory.
- 25.12.2021 – a group of 28 migrants attempted to forcibly cross the border in the vicinity of Mielnik. Polish patrols were blinded with laser lights – stones were thrown towards them. All foreigners were stopped and returned to the border line.
- 26.12.2021 – a group of 36 aggressive foreigners attempted to forcibly cross the border in the vicinity of Mielnik.
- 27.12.2021 – in the vicinity of Mielnik, at about 21:00 a group of 24 Iraqi citizens attempted to forcibly cross the border. The foreigners were destroying border protections and used a wooden platform in order to cross them. All of them were stopped and returned to the border line. Stones were thrown towards the Polish soldiers and officers. The aggressive group of migrants was assisted by Belarusian services. Only on 27 December, the Polish Border Guard recorded 68 attempts to illegally cross the Polish-Belarusian border.
To follow up-to-date information on the situation on the Polish-Belarussian border, we encourage you to visit:
- the special website: https://www.gov.pl/web/border;
- a special English-language coverage of the migrant crisis on the Polish-Belarusian border, entitled "Focus on the Border", lunched by the public broadcaster Radio Poland: https://www.polskieradio.pl/395/9610.
DIPLOMATIC ACTIONS UNDERTAKEN BY POLAND’s OFFICIALS
The situation on the Polish-Belarussian border and the hybrid action against Poland has been the subject of the following actions:
- 27 December - On the 30th anniversary of the recognition of the Republic of Belarus by the Republic of Poland, Polish FM Zbigniew Rau said: “Thirty years ago, the people of Belarus resolved to build their own sovereign state. Poland immediately recognised Belarus, fully acknowledging the Belarusian people’s right and aspirations to freely and independently decide their own fate.” There is a full text of Polish MFA statement published on this occasion: https://www.gov.pl/web/diplomacy/mfa-statement4
- 22 December - During the visit in Ivano-Frankivsk Polish FM Zbigniew Rau met with his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba. The ministers talked about current security challenges in the region, cooperation within regional formats and Polish - Ukrainian bilateral relations.
- 21 December - During the meeting of the FMs of the V4 and Turkey, attended by Polish FM Zbigniew Rau, the situation on the Polish – Belarussian border and options to counter illegal migration were under discussion.
- 21 December - Polish soldiers on the border with Belarus are also supported by two Estonian reporting teams "Combat Camera". Their task is to report on the situation on the ground.
- 21 December - Head of National Security Bureau, Paweł Soloch, said in his article for “Rzeczpospolita”: The balance sheet of the recent months of the border crisis has shown that we come out unscathed from the confrontation in an area that has been treated for years as one of the weaknesses of the state - strategic communication. We have built a uniform message, we have gained the support of the majority of society, and the Polish perspective on Lukashenka's aggression was shared by NATO allies and European Union partners. (https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art19219391-pawel-soloch-nasze-dzialania-byly-skuteczne )
The diplomatic actions taken by Poland have been successful – at present, much fewer migrants are arriving in Belarus, although the situation at the Polish-Belarusian border remains difficult.
27 December 2021