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Belarusian hybrid attack on the EU

09.11.2021

We are witnessing an unprecedented aggression of Belarus against Poland and the whole European Union. The weapon used in this hostile activity are migrants. With a silent support and approval of his patron – Russian president Vladimir Putin – Alexander Lukashenko has enticed thousands of them to come to Belarus and then funnelled them to the EU borders, often with the escort of uniformed troops with guns. The biggest migratory pressure is currently on Poland, after the regime in Minsk redirected its earlier focus from Lithuania and Latvia. Lukashenko opened this artificial migratory route out of revenge for international sanctions imposed on Minsk and the support given to the democratic opposition in Belarus. It is a hybrid warfare where the Belarusian state apparatus is cynically using the migrants, staging dangerous provocations against the Polish border guards and soldiers and conducting aggressive disinformation campaigns. EU and NATO, whose borders with Belarus are in fact the very borders Poland, Latvia and Lithuania have with Belarus, share this assessment. They realize that our efforts to prevent the 2014/2015 European migrant crisis from happening again now are indispensable.

DBN

Since July, 2021, the Polish Border Guard has seen a dramatic spike in the numbers of attempts to illegally cross the Polish border from Belarus. In August, there were 3,500 such attempts, and a month later – more than three times that many. Before Lukashenko decided to launch his hybrid warfare operation against the West, illegal crossings at this section of Poland’s eastern border were just rare occurrences. The current influx of migrants depends directly on the activities taken by the Belarusian authorities. For the purposes of this massive hostile effort, the regime in Minsk has established a number of (and is looking to find more) flight connections to fly masses of foreigners to Belarus and then push them towards the EU.

Although for the time being the regime of Lukashenko has “eased up” on Lithuania and Latvia and its main focus has been on Poland for a couple of months now, one must bear in mind that this artificial migratory route is fully supervised and managed by Minsk. Therefore, the Belarusian regime may at any moment choose to redirect the flow of migrants back to these two Baltic states.

The migrants funnelled to the Polish border are controlled and instructed by the Belarusian border services. It is more and more common for them to gather the foreigners in large groups comprised mostly of young men. The logic behind is that in larger and stronger groups it is easier to cross the border by force. The Belarusian services equip these people with tools to destroy the razor wire fencing laid out by the Polish soldiers – bolt cutters, metal poles and ladders. Some of the migrants behave very aggressively towards our border patrols.

And it is exactly what we are witnessing near the Kuznica Bialostocka-Bruzgi checkpoint. In the latest effort to escalate the situation, on Nov. 8th, 2021, the Belarusian forces channelled a large crowd of migrants to the forest just several hundred meters to the south of that border crossing. The approximately 1000-strong group – mostly young men – has been camping out just across the Polish border ever since. They have made multiple attempts to take down the barbed wire fence with bolt cutters, spades, trees they have cut with axes and forcibly enter the Polish territory. The camp is guarded by Belarusians. See the links below:

https://twitter.com/MON_GOV_PL

https://twitter.com/MON_GOV_PL/status/1457709857566564354

The Poles who protect the border are more and more often targeted with meticulously staged provocations. The Belarusians point their guns at them and fire so called empty shots. They simulate throwing grenades over the fence which, by the way, they often demolish themselves. They throw insults at the Polish patrols. These provocations are aimed to trigger an offensive reaction of the Poles. Our Border Guard reports on such situations on a daily basis. See the links below:

https://twitter.com/Straz_Graniczna

The Polish Foreign Ministry stays in close contact with our political partners in Africa and the Middle-East in order to prevent and impede the illegal migration. For more information visit the following Twitter accounts:@MSZ_RP @PolandMFA @RzecznikMSZ

Belarus orchestrates an illegal migration scheme

The EU countries have faced problems stemming from illegal migration before. However, the current crisis on the Belarusian-Polish border has no precedent. This time a migratory route has been orchestrated from start to finish by an aggressive third-party country – one that is governed by a dangerous authoritarian regime – that shares a border with the Community. Almost the entire state apparatus of Belarus is implicated in these activities. “Tourist firms” controlled by Lukashenko’s administration, for example CentrKurort, issue invitations without which the migrants would not be allowed to arrive in Belarus. As a next step, the Belarusian foreign ministry hands over tourist visas to migrants, which makes their stay in the country fully legal.

The migrants are flown to Belarus. For Belavia – the Belarusian state-controlled airline – this artificial migratory route is a means to increase its profits despite the EU sanctions. From Minsk the foreigners are transported to the border with Poland. The Belarusian border services act as their guides and instruct them on how to illegally cross the border.

The regime of Lukashenko takes full responsibility for the migrants whom it has been flying to Belarus and for their fate as well. The dictator makes big time money on this scheme. The price for the transportation to the border area ranges from USD 2,000 to 14,000. It is estimated that the entities implicated in said migratory route have so far made tens of millions of dollars on it. The profits go mostly to Belarusian state institutions.

Illegal migration as a weapon used in information warfare

The hostile operation conducted by the Belarusian regime against Poland and the whole EU is complemented with aggressive information warfare efforts that fit squarely within the long-term goals of the Russian propaganda. These efforts are targeted directly against the interests and the security of Poland. They are designed to intimidate and terrorize, break the European unity, extort political concessions by means of blackmail, stir up social unrest and internal conflicts, and place the blame for the fate of the migrants on Poland.

Belarusian propaganda machine seeks to play on the feelings of the target audiences. It is common for the Belarusian border services to transport the whole families with children or even women in late-term pregnancy to the Polish border. This serves to stir up guilt and other mixed emotions among the Polish troops on the one hand, but also to use these most vulnerable migrants for the purposes of extremely suggestive propaganda efforts targeted at the public opinion – both Polish and international – and the authorities of Poland on the other. Thus, the migrants who arrive in Belarus end up as weapons in the hybrid war waged by Lukashenko. They are duped and used by the dictator.

The representatives of the Belarusian authorities, state institutions, public officers, opinion leaders and media are all involved in creating and then pushing disinformation around the migrant crisis. The Russian media outlets eagerly pick these bogus narratives up and amplify them. The picture of Poland that emerges from these narratives is as follows: Warsaw is to blame for the border crisis and for the acts of violation of human rights and it spreads a manipulated message about what is happening there. The Belarusian regime-controlled media even go as far as accusing Poland of striving for aggression and using “fascist methods” against the migrants.

The exploitation of narratives related to humanitarian issues in the regime’s disinformation campaigns aims to portray Poland as being indifferent to human harm, which in turn aims to distract the attention from the blatantly obvious involvement of Belarus in the whole migratory scheme. Pushing such narratives and accusations is a typical method used by Belarusian and Russian services in their information warfare efforts. It fits squarely within the scenarios which are hostile to Poland and the EU and constitutes an encouragement for Lukashenko to undertake more actions that could jeopardize their national security.

Stanisław Żaryn

Spokesman for Poland’s Minister-Special Services Coordinator

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