Special Services

Russia's war against Ukraine continues. And there's no sign of it ending. The Kremlin will not back down. Russian troops continue to try to break through Ukrainian defenses and terrorize Ukrainian society. And - everything points to it - they are preparing another attempt to change the situation on the battlefield to their advantage. Russia's goals in the war have not changed. Although aggression is not going the Kremlin's way, Russia still intends to destroy Ukraine in its current shape and occupy its territory. Further signals from Russia indicate that the plans of aggression against Ukraine have not been suspended. The Kremlin's invasion is systematic.

From the very beginning, Russia's war against Ukraine has had its impact on Poland. We are a neighbor of Ukraine, we have a border with Russia, i.e. the aggressor, and also with Belarus, which is falling more and more into the depths of Russian domination. The Polish perspective is clear – if Ukraine is defeated, the Polish eastern border will be very difficult and unstable, and the level of security in the entire region will be significantly weakened.

The nature of the Russian state, the consistently pursued Russian imperialism, the declared and implemented attempt to rebuild the security architecture in Europe - all this indicates that Russia's victory against Ukraine will only be a stage of actions that may also affect NATO countries in the future. Certainly, Russia will not stop its imperial ambitions and will try to rebuild its influence at the expense of e.g. Central European countries. This is also evidenced by the analysis of materials prepared for the needs of Russia's military structures. In August 2022, during a briefing at the Center for Military and Political Studies at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, its director Alexey Podberyozkin argued that the only scenario favorable for Russia was a further escalation of the situation and an expansion of aggressive actions against the West.

After a few months of Russia's war against Ukraine, an analyst with influence on Russian strategy argued for the need for further escalation, pointing out that only such escalation could ensure Russia's defense of its allegedly threatened interests. According to the Russian, choosing a different strategy will sooner or later end with the collapse of Russia and the disintegration of the state. Podbieriozkin's lecture shows that not only Russian political elites, but also military analysts are convinced of the need to escalate the war, as well as to expand the spectrum of hostile actions against the West.

Also in view of the above, it is in Poland's interest to support the activities of Ukraine and help the attacked state. This is understood not only by the authorities of the Republic of Poland, but also by other countries of NATO's eastern flank, for which support for Ukraine is an obvious need. Russian imperialism must be stopped because it will not stop itself. That is why Volodymyr Zelensky's international activity is of key importance. And it is a clear indication of Poland's leading role in the West's actions for Ukraine.

Stanisław Żaryn
Government Plenipotentiary for the Security of Information Space of the Republic of Poland