Special Services

On 29 August this year, a counter-offensive was launched in the south of Ukraine aimed at driving out subdivisions of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation located on the right bank of the Dnieper. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are conducting limited offensive operations on the west bank of the Dnieper. The current operations are part of a long-term plan to systematically attack the Russian logistical system in southern Ukraine and tie up forces dislocated west of the Dnieper.

The Ukrainian counter-offensive in the north-east of the country has led to the seizure of almost the entire Kharkiv region. At present, the front line has stabilized on the line of the Oskil and Seversky Donets rivers. Part of the Kharkiv region has been abandoned by the Russians without a fight. However, the retreat from the occupied positions has prevented Kiev from encircling large Russian groupings.

Another significant success for Kiev is the seizure of the town of Izium - so far the only Russian bridgehead on the Seversky Donets River in the north of the Donbass. This significantly improves the situation of Ukrainian forces defending the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk region.  In addition, Ukrainian forces have managed to make progress in the north-western part of the Kherson region, taking up positions located, among others, near Archangelsk (this locality, however, is still under Russian control).

An analysis of Ukrainian actions to date indicates that, in fact, the command in Kiev is still pursuing the long-term concept of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This involves systematically attacking the Russian logistical system in the south of Ukraine (by destroying road and rail junctions, bridges and ammunition depots) and tying up forces dislocated on the right bank of the Dnieper with combat. Now, the command in Kiev has moved to more aggressive measures to force the Russian side to bring retreats into the fight. The intensification of military operations and the redeployment of additional subdivisions to the west bank of the Dnieper is expected to lead to a further increase in the Russian consumption of combat and material resources. Combined with the steadily declining efficiency of the Russian logistics system, this is expected to lead to a collapse in the Russian Armed Forces' ability to carry out its tasks.

The counter-offensive is intended to send a clear message that Russia will not be able to hold a referendum in Kherson and formally detach that area from Ukraine, as it does not have full control over it.