The improvement in the industrial sector continued in July this year, as reflected by the PMI index peak, which amounted to 52.8 points at the time, and a 0.5% growth in industrial production (year-to-year). The aforementioned data was not fully confirmed by the results in the exports of goods, which has increased by 1.6% in July (year-to-year) (down to approximately EUR 19.6 million), however it must be stressed that the reduction was clearly less prominent than in April or May, when it exceeded 20%. The export indicators in July were mainly determined by the 3.7% decrease in expediting vehicles other than railway or tramway rolling-stock as well as their parts and accessories. Imports decreased more prominently during the analysed month, i.e. by 6.8% (down to EUR 18.6 billion), which translated to the improvement of the turnover balance by over EUR 1 billion.

During the 7 months of the current year, exports of goods from Poland decreased by 6% year-to-year and reached the amount of EUR 129.6 billion, while the imports decreased by 10%, amounting to EUR 124 billion. A milder decrease in export resulted in a pronounced increase in trade surplus - by nearly EUR 5.5 billion, up to EUR 5.6 billion.

Export to EU27 amounted to EUR 95 billion, which means a decrease by 7.5% year-to-year. Decreased sales were noted with regards to the majority of EU counties, including the key countries, such as Germany by 3.8%, Czech Republic 9.3% and France by 11.3%. The data notes a 12.5% decrease in imports from the EU (down to EUR 68.5 billion), resulting in the improvement of the positive balance to EUR 26.5 billion.

The decrease in sales to other economically developed countries (outside of the EU) neared the average - by 6.2% (down to EUR 16.6 billion), including to Great Britain by approximately 10%, Norway by approximately 9.5% and Canada by over 30%. That was however set off by the increase in exports to, among other, USA (by 2.2%) and Switzerland (by 6.3%). Imports from that group of countries have decreased in turn by 10.7% (down to nearly EUR 12.2 billion), and the positive balance has increased up to EUR 4.4 billion.

The low growth in sales to the CIS countries, i.e. by 0.8% (up to EUR 8.4 billion) contrasted with the aforementioned data. Within that group, the increase in exports was noted, among others, to Ukraine (by 2.1%), to Kazakhstan (by 58%) and Moldova (by approximately 12%). Regardless, the positive outcome was largely negatively offset by the decreased sales to Russia and Belarus (by 3.2%). Imports from the aforementioned group of markets were 23% lower in comparison to the preceding year and amounted to EUR 8.7 billion. In result, the turnover deficit has been reduced to EUR 0.3 billion.

In the case of the remaining, less developed markets (outside of the CIS), sales increased by 4.8%, up to EUR 9.5 billion. During the discussed period, the sales to the following countries also improved: China (by 16.6%), Turkey (by 8.9%) and Saudi Arabia (by over 70%). A slight but notable growth of 0.2% was also noted with regards to imports (up to EUR 34.5 billion). In effect, the traditionally deep deficit with that group of counties was reduced by approximately EUR 355 million, down to EUR 25 billion. 

Considering the substantive structure of our turnover, the decreases in exports have affected all of the key items, including: boilers, mechanical machinery and equipment and their parts and components by 5.3%, electrical machinery and equipment and their parts and components by 1.6%, vehicles other than railway or tramway rolling-stock and their parts and components by approximately 26% as well as furniture, linen, mattresses, lamps, etc. by approximately 13%. 

Due to the current pandemic and its effects, including, among others, decreased national and international demands, decreased investments and increased uncertainty, the international activity of our businesses is expected to be limited in the upcoming months. Despite that however, we expect that the scale of the limitations will continue to decrease. That also seems to be confirmed by the published indicators regarding the attitudes of consumers and manufacturers, as well as the recent PMI indicators, both in Poland as well as for our euro area partners, which indicate increasingly positive attitudes in industrial processing.