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EC autumn forecast. Prospects for the Polish economy – a commentary by the ministry of economic development, labour and technology

05.11.2020

The EC estimates that the decline in GDP in Poland in 2020 will amount to 3.6%. This result is better than the estimates of the summer forecast (-4.6%) and the spring forecast (-4.3%). In comparison to the EU countries, the weakening of activity in 2020 will be lower than the EU average (-7.4%), and also lower than the indicator for the eurozone (-7.8%). Among the EU countries, only Lithuania, Ireland and Sweden will be less economically affected by the pandemic this year.

Data, Analysis, Comment

The fact that the economy is rapidly recovering is encouraging. The level of Polish GDP in the fourth quarter of 2022 will be higher by approx. 3.4% compared to the fourth quarter of 2019, i.e. before the first symptoms of the pandemic appeared. This will be the strongest rebound among all EU countries, while in countries such as Spain and Italy, GDP will still be lower (by approx. 3%), while the GDP of the entire EU will be close to the level before the pandemic.

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