In order to ensure the highest quality of our services, we use small files called cookies. When using our website, the cookie files are downloaded onto your device. You can change the settings of your browser at any time. In addition, your use of our website is tantamount to your consent to the processing of your personal data provided by electronic means.

Back

Gross Domestic Product in Q2 2021. - commentary by analysts at the Ministry of Development and Technology

31.08.2021

The seasonally unadjusted Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Q2 2021 grew by 11.1% year-on-year in real terms. Compared to the pandemic-marked second quarter of last year, there was a very strong rebound in trade (imports up 35.8% and exports up 29.3%), as well as in household consumption (up 13.3%). Investment is also recovering, with the rebuilding of inventories playing a leading role.

Data, Analysis, Comment

Poland's seasonally unadjusted GDP growth (in annual average prices of 2020) in the second quarter was 11.1% y/y. This means that the Central Statistical Office (CSO) has revised its first estimate upwards by 0.2 pp.

Analysis by the Ministry of Development and Technology

The growth was broad and dynamic, covering all major demand aggregates. Its unprecedented scale was due to a low reference base. Exports grew particularly strongly (by 29.3% y/y, compared with a 13.7% y/y decline a year ago), as did imports (35.8%, compared with a 16.6% y/y decline in Q2 2020), while consumption also recorded double-digit growth (13.3%, compared with a 10.8% decline a year ago). Signs of investment revival also continued, with gross investment outlays rising by 5% y/y, compared to a 9.8% decline a year ago.

The CSO data released today also confirm preliminary estimates that economic activity in the second quarter of 2021 was higher than that recorded before the pandemic events, i.e. compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. In the case of industry, activity levels are already more than 10% higher.

The CSO's estimates also indicate that economic activity in the first half of 2021 was higher by nearly 5% compared to the period a year ago.

According to analysts at the Ministry of Development and Technology, such a pace of economic activity recovery should be maintained in the next two quarters. We expect the investment recovery to continue, the high pace of international trade to be maintained and the effects of last year's low base to be gradually reduced. Sustained and stable growth will be maintained in the absence of unfavourable external disturbances and the absence of an increase in pandemic phenomena.

{"register":{"columns":[]}}