In previous November, for the third consecutive year, Polish exports of goods reported growth (+6.7% y/y, to EUR 22.5 billion). In view of the pandemic, such a result must be considered good. It shows the exceptional strength of our exporters, who have once again confirmed their competitiveness on foreign markets and demonstrated their relative resilience to external disturbances. Such a rapid reconstruction of our exports would not have been possible without the changes in European purchases, namely a shift in demand from services to goods, including consumer goods (furniture, electronics, household goods), in which we are specialised.

Slight revival was also recorded on the side of imports, which increased by 0.4% in November 2020 to EUR 20.6 billion.

On the 11-month scale, however, exports from Poland in 2020 decreased by 1.4% on an annual basis, amounting to approx. EUR 217,1 billion, and imports were 6% lower and amounted to approx. EUR 205,7 billion. The surplus of turnover reached approx. EUR 11.4 billion, which means EUR 10.1 billion higher than a year ago.

Poland’s exports to the EU27 decreased by 1.7% y/y (EUR 160.5 billion after 11 months of 2020), including the exports to the Czech Republic by more than 6%, to France by 5.5% and to Italy by around 5%. On the other hand, exports to our main trading partner, i.e. Germany, were positive (growth of more than 2%).

Exports to other economically developed countries (outside the EU) also reached lower values than a year ago, with a decrease of around 4% to EUR 26,9 bln. This was in particular the result of a reduction in exports to the United Kingdom (by around 6%), impacted by the temporary lack of the UK-EU agreement. A modest decrease was also noted in exports to the USA (by 0.7%).

Slight increase occurred in exports to the Commonwealth of Independent States, i.e. by 0.7% (EUR 14.0 bln), including to Ukraine by around 5%. On the other hand, decrease was recorded in the exports to, among others, Russia (by 4,6 %).

In contrast, the sales to other (non-CIS) less developed and developing countries continued to grow the most among the main market groups, i.e. by 5.5%, including to China and Turkey by more than 15%.

Given the structure of our turnover, the reductions affected most major export items, including boilers, machinery and mechanical appliances, as well as parts and accessories thereof (by about 3%), non-rail vehicles, their parts and accessories (by 17%) and furniture, bedding, mattresses, lamps, etc. (by 6.5%). However, this group also includes some extremely well-performing products, including electrical machinery and equipment, as well as parts and accessories thereof, the exports of which increased by 9% after 11 months of 2020.  

On what concerns December 2020, following the favourable calendar effect (December 2020 was 2 days longer than December 2019), the estimated exceptionally high dynamics of industrial production, and the high demand for Polish industrial products, as indicated by the PMI study, we expect to report a two-digit rate of growth in exports of goods. Thus, on a yearly basis, we expect it to be similar to the result achieved in 2019.