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OECD economic forecast - comment by the Ministry of Economic Development and Technology

02.12.2021

The OECD raised Poland's GDP growth forecast for 2021 to 5.3% and for 2022 to 5.2%. The organisation's previous estimates from May this year were 3.7% and 4.7% respectively. The economic revival in Poland will be driven by investments, and thanks to the good situation on the labour market, consumption will also increase - according to the latest OECD forecast.

Better policies for better lives
  • Consumption and investments will be the main engines of economic growth in Poland.
  • The dynamics of investment outlays is to exceed the GDP growth rate in the forecast horizon, in 2023 as much as two times.
  • The OECD emphasises the positive role of the Polish Deal package for the development of economy.
  • A challenge for the Polish economy will be the growing demand for workers on the labour market.

The OECD published its latest assessment of the economic outlook (Global Economic Outlook) on December 1, 2021. According to it, Poland's GDP growth in 2021 is expected to reach 5.3% (vs. 3.7% expected in May), while in 2022 - 5.2% (4.7% forecast in May). Despite a slowdown in growth in 2023, to 3.3%, it will still be faster than the growth of the global economy.

The main drivers of growth in our economy are expected to be consumption and investment. Consumption will grow as a result of the reduction of savings accumulated at the peak of the pandemic and the good situation on the labour market. Investments will be supported, among others, by the spending of EU funds. The dynamics of investment outlays is to exceed the GDP growth rate in the forecast horizon, in 2023 as much as two times.

While higher energy prices and supply bottlenecks are likely to be a temporary factor pushing up inflation in our country (the OECD forecast for CPI in Poland for 2021 is 4.8%, for 2022 - 6.2%, and for 2023 - 3.5%), the lack of spare capacity may support the continuation of inflationary pressure also in 2023.

The OECD recognises that rising consumer confidence and wage growth could lead to higher consumption than the forecast indicates. Of key importance, however, will be the epidemic situation, the possible worsening of which could cool down growth trends.

The OECD stresses that the Polish governance package will have a supporting influence on the Polish economy. Further monetary policy measures will also be possible, should inflationary pressure build up.

According to the OECD, economic policy in our country should in the long term support stable and balanced growth. In the areas of growth policy, measures aimed at the adaptation of employees to changing, also as a result of COVID-19, requirements on the labour market may be necessary. They should support labour force participation and productivity growth. Public investment, meanwhile, should focus on infrastructure, including mainly transport and energy, and support green and digital transformation.

Global economy

The OECD forecast points to a rapid pace of recovery of economic activity in the global economy, despite its unsustainable nature. Most OECD countries have already surpassed pre-pandemic levels (i.e. end-2019) and are gradually returning to the path we expected before the pandemic. The projected growth rate in 2021 is 5.6% (similar to May and September expectations of 5.8% and 5.7%, respectively), while in 2022 it is 4.5%, expected in September. Activity in 2023 should slow to 3.2%.

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