The June export data may be considered favourable, in particular in comparison to the drops in the preceding months (by 28.6% in April and 21.6% in May). At the same time, it reflects a significant improvement in the Polish industrial sector, as exemplified by an improved industrial goods output (an increase of 0.5% (y/y in June) or the PMI index, which has already exceeded the threshold of 50 points. With regards to imports, Poland still notes a slowdown, however its scale (13.5%) is much lower in comparison to April (27.5%) and May (29.3%).

During the entire first half of the current year, exports of goods from Poland decreased by 7% per annum and reached the amount of EUR 109.7 billion, while the imports decreased by 11%, amounting to EUR 104.8 billion. The significant decline in turnover in the area of imports has translated into a significant improvement in the exchange balance - up to EUR 4.9 billion in comparison to approximately EUR 280 million in the first half of 2019.

Between January and June this year, exports to the EU27 has reached over EUR 80.4 billion and dropped by 8.9% in comparison to the preceding year. The sales of Polish goods to all major EU markets have dropped; including Germany - by 5.6%, the Czech Republic - by 10.3%, France - by 12.8%, the Netherlands - by 11.5% and Italy - by 19.1%. A deeper decrease in turnover was noted with regards to imports from EU countries - by 14% (up to % (EUR 57.8 billion), including Germany with a drop by 14.8%. In result, the trade surplus with the EU27 has increased by over EUR 1.5 billion (and reached over EUR 22.6 billion), and with regards to the trade with Germany alone by almost EUR 2.1 billion (up to EUR 8.4 billion).

The exports to non-EU developed markets have decreased at a slightly lower pace in comparison the EU - by 6.3% (down to EUR 14.2 billion), out of which the exports to the UK dropped by 10.5% (down to nearly EUR 6.3 billion). During the first half of the year, the sales to the USA have increased by 2.3% to nearly EUR 3.5 billion. Imports from the aforementioned group of markets decreased by 10.5% (down to EUR 10.6 billion) and the exchange surplus has increased by EUR 0.3 billion and reached the value of EUR 3.6 billion.

The first half of the year brought an increase in exports to the CIS countries of 0.6%, and reached the total amount of over EUR 7 billion. In addition, it is worth noting that sales to Ukraine were quite positive (an increase of 0.2%, up to the total amount of EUR 2.3 billion). Exports to Russia have decreased by 3.2% (down to EUR 3.3 billion). Imports from the aforementioned group of markets were 23% lower in comparison to the preceding year and amounted to EUR 7.5 billion. In result, the turnover deficit has been reduced by EUR 2.3 billion and amounted to less than EUR 0.5 billion.

With regards to the less developer markets (excluding CIS), the records show an increase in exports by 5.8% (up to over EUR 8 billion). With regards to the exports to that group of countries, the historical data have traditionally shown large disproportions in the dynamics of sales among the key recipients of our products. On the one hand, there has been a dynamic increase in exports to China (by 14.2%), Saudi Arabia (by 75%) and Algeria (by 21%), while on the other hand we have noted a decrease in the exports to Serbia (by 17%), the United Arab Emirates (by 8.7%) and India (by approximately 22%). The deep deficit traditionally recorded with these markets has been reduced by EUR 0.5 billion during the first half of this year and has reached EUR 20.9 billion.

With regards to the main groups of commodities, exports of the majority of products including the dominant products of the electrical machinery industry during the first half of the year have decreased by 11.5% (down to less than EUR 42.5 billion). Increase of sales was noted with regards to agri-food products (by 7%, up to EUR 16.4 billion) and light industry products (by 8%, up to EUR 5.9 billion). A similar situation occurred with regards to imports, where an increase was noted only in the case of agri-food products (by 4.8%, up to EUR 11 billion) and light industry products (by 4.5%, up to nearly EUR 7.6 billion).

The development of the global economic situation in the coming months remains uncertain. The further worldwide spread of the coronavirus as well as the looming possibility that many countries may adopt restrictions in travel and running business activity remains the key factor. Persistent uncertainty translates into postponing consumption and investment decisions, and this in turn reduces exports and imports.

On the other hand, the significant improvement in real data in the Polish economy, in the economies of our partners, as well as the improvement of the indicators related to the attitudes of consumers and producers call for a moderate optimism that the situation in the international trade, including the Polish foreign trade, will gradually improve in the months to come.