• On 10 May 2024 rating agency Fitch announced a decision about keeping Poland’s credit rating unchanged at the level of A-/F1 for long and short term liabilities, respectively, in foreign currency and A-/F1 for long and short term liabilities in local currency.
• Rating’s outlook remained at a stable level.

Poland's rating is supported by a diversified and resilient economy, a fairly sound macroeconomic framework anchored by EU membership, solid external finances and a higher and more stable government revenue base compared to peers. These are balanced against lower income levels and governance indicators and a wider fiscal deficit. Poland’s relations with the European Commission have improved following elections in October and the first RRF payment was made in April after the European Commission concluded that Poland had fulfilled all necessary conditions.

Fitch expects GDP growth to gain momentum and reach 2.8% in 2024 (revised up from 2.2%), and to 3.2% in 2025 (‘A’ median 2.9%) supported by further consumption growth as inflation declines, EU funds flow and external demand recovers.

Rating prospects

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive rating action/upgrade in the area of public finances are the following: fiscal consolidation over the medium term that leads to a firm decline in government debt to GDP ratio, sustained higher GDP growth, leading to faster income convergence towards ‘A’ category median, supported by policies that do not lead to macroeconomic, fiscal or external imbalances.

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative rating action/downgrade are: rapid increase in general government debt/GDP over the medium term, materially lower medium-term growth and a sustained deterioration in external finances.