• On 19 March 2021 rating agency Fitch announced a decision about keeping Poland’s credit rating unchanged at the level of A-/F2 for long and short term liabilities, respectively, in foreign currency and A-/F1 for long and short term liabilities, respectively, in local currency.
• Rating’s outlook remained at a stable level.

Fitch rating agency in its press release justifying the decision indicates strong macro fundamentals and well diversified economy, underpinned by sound economic and monetary policy framework. Agency pointed that the epidemic had a negative impact on Poland’s real GDP growth in 2020 by only 2.7%, due to strong growth in government consumption and net exports. Fitch forecasts fiscal deficit to GDP 5.7% in 2021 and 3.7% in 2022.

Rating prospects

According to the agency, Poland’s rating could be raised as a result of an improvement in net external debt to GDP towards countries with ‘A’ category or fiscal consolidation that will lead to a sustained decline in public debt to GDP. Additionally, rating could be higher as a result of GDP growth supporting faster income convergence towards countries with ‘A’ category. On the other hand, rating could be lowered in case sustained increase in government debt, from a failure to consolidate public finances over the medium term, crystallisation of contingent liabilities or weakening of economic growth. Rating could be also lower if governance standards or the business climate will lead to an adverse impact on the economy.