• On 21 March 2025 rating agency Moody’s published press release, which announced completion of a periodic review of rating.
• Poland’s credit rating at the level of A2/P1 for long and short term liabilities, respectively. Rating’s outlook at a stable level.

Moody’s rating agency in its press release indicates that the ratings are underpinned by strong economic dynamics and improved relations with the European Union. The agency forecasts growth of 4% for 2025 after increase of 2.9% in 2024 and points out to a lower level of economic complexity when compared to rating peers and good quality of institutions. The fiscal deficit is likely to decrease from 6.1% of GDP in 2024 to 5.8% of GDP in 2025 given further increase in defence spending. The rating agency expect gradual fiscal consolidation from 2026 onwards and stabilization of debt burden at around 60% of GDP by 2030. Moreover, Poland’s elevated susceptibility to geopolitical event risks is mitigated by NATO membership and significant self-defence capabilities. The rating takes into account Poland’s medium-to-long term demographic challenges.

Rating prospects

Ratings would come under upward pressure in a scenario of improved regional security situation and materially lower geopolitical risk. What’s more credit positive developments include a swift restoration of full judicial independence and also implementation of other policy initiatives than supports economic and fiscal strength. Indications that the currently expected deterioration of Poland’s debt metrics turns out less pronounced, and that stronger fiscal consolidation efforts lead to debt levels stabilizing well below 60% of GDP, ultimately re-building the sound pre-pandemic public sector balance sheet, would be also credit positive.

Downward pressure on the ratings would emerge in a scenario of deterioration of regional security situation, including concrete signals of withdrawal of US support. Materially faster deterioration of the government’s debt burden, would also be credit negative as well as renewed deterioration with respect to the rule of law which would have a negative impact on the business location in Poland.