• On 30 April  2021 rating agency Moody’s announced a decision about keeping Poland’s credit rating unchanged at the level of A2/P1 for long and short term liabilities, respectively.
• Rating’s outlook remained at a stable level.

Moody’s rating agency in its press release justifying the decision indicates Poland’s economic strength to be resilient to the COVID-19 shock. Agency pointed that the epidemic had a negative impact on Poland’s real GDP growth in 2020 by only 2.7%,  mainly because of the favourable structure of the competitive Polish economy. In addition, the pandemic shock was mitigated by a sizeable fiscal support package and an appropriately eased monetary policy. Moody’s forecasts GDP to rebound by 3.3% and 4.8% in 2021 and 2022, respectively.

Rating prospects

According to the agency, Poland’s rating would come under upward pressure if policymakers successfully addressed the significant policy challenges related to the timing and focus of the withdrawal of support measures. Such a policy path would on the one hand guarantee a sustainable recovery and on the other hand reduce the risk of support measures being in place too long. On the other hand, rating could be lowered if the government’s fiscal position would deteriorate materially or if economic growth would significantly slow down relative to the pre-pandemic situation.