• On 10 May 2024 rating agency S&P announced a decision about keeping Poland’s credit rating unchanged at the level of A-/A-2 for long and short term liabilities, respectively, in foreign currency, and A/A-1 for long and short term liabilities, respectively, in local currency.
• Rating’s outlook is stable.

Agency expects Poland's economy to expand by 2.8% in 2024 and by 3.1% in 2025 as domestic demand continues to increase, offsetting weak external demand from Poland's key trading partners. The government has unlocked access to substantial EU funding but we expect a polarized political landscape will continue to complicate policymaking. S&P projects that fiscal deficits will remain high this year and next.

The stable outlook reflects the balance between Poland's robust medium-term growth prospects and improved relations with the EU, and the near-term risks it faces from subdued external demand, loose fiscal policy, and elevated underlying price pressures.

Rating prospects

According to the agency, the rating could be raised if sustained institutional and governance improvements will be observed which also translated into a steady flow of EU funds and net foreign direct investment (FDI), supporting Poland's medium-term growth prospects.

On the other hand, agency could lower the ratings if Poland's medium-term growth prospects deteriorated significantly, possibly coupled with renewed external shocks, including potentially unexpected spillovers and reduced confidence linked to the Russia-Ukraine war.