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Summer 2023: prelude to drought

26.06.2023

Long-term weather forecasts indicate that temperatures around 30 degrees Celsius will prevail in Poland in July. There are many indications that Europe will face extreme heat waves for another year in a row. In 2023, scientists are also particularly concerned about the intense warming of the seas, unprecedented in the history of measurements. With constant air temperatures and intense sunshine, this phenomenon also affects inland waters, including rivers. At the end of June, water levels in Polish rivers are in the low to medium zone, indicating a hydrological drought.

Lato 2023. Wstęp do suszy 1

Warming and drying up of rivers in Europe

Europe is now the fastest-warming continent. The average temperature has increased by 2.4 degrees Celsius since 1900. Last year was the warmest ever measured. Spain and France have been hit by record heat since January this year. These countries, for the umpteenth consecutive year, are facing extreme drought. Drought also affects the Baltic countries, including Scandinavia, where forest fires threaten almost the entire area. According to the latest data from the European Satellite Agency (ESA), drought in June – at the dawn of summer – already covers a third of Europe. Intense warming of the Atlantic and sea waters is also observed, particularly around the British Isles and the Mediterranean and Baltic Seas. The scale of the phenomenon has not previously been recorded in the history of measurements. On the other hand, the extreme heat coming into Europe from Africa in June is accelerating the heating of inland waters: rivers and reservoirs. Rivers already have deficient water levels in Spain, southern France and Germany, and some are beginning to dry up. Lows have appeared on the Rhine. In Poland, average water levels prevailed in rivers in spring. However, the arrival of the first hot weather abruptly changed the situation. The water levels in the rivers have decreased, and now the water levels are arranged in the low and medium zones in both the Oder and Vistula basins. Only locally, during rainfall run-off, the water levels are temporarily rising on small rivers. The temperature in the Oder's current has significantly increased to 20-23 degrees Celsius; in the canals and oxbow lakes, it reaches 26-27 degrees.

Storm rainfall is not making up for the water shortage. Upcoming forecasts

According to the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute (IMGW-PIB) forecasts, the storms and precipitation expected in the coming days will temporarily stabilise the situation and may even improve it slightly at points. However, the hydrological and soil – otherwise known as agricultural – drought will persist. Storm precipitation, due to high temperatures and intensive vegetation, is not sufficient to alleviate the hydrological drought in the long term. The phenomenon is progressing. The situation is currently most difficult in the west of the country, as the least amount of precipitation has been recorded there. According to IMGW-PIB data, 36 hydrological drought warnings are currently in force in Poland, and on 26 June, three new warnings against this phenomenon were issued. They covered the upper Warta River basin from the Liswarta River to the Jeziorsko Reservoir, the Gwda River basin and the Odra River section from the Warta River to Gryfino. In the coming week, rainfall is forecast across the country. Initially, heavier precipitation is expected in the southwest and then in the south and east.

The Main Inspectorate of Environmental Protection examines the physicochemical condition and temperature of the waters as part of its continuous monitoring; the results are available at gov.pl/Odra under the Oder Research tab.

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