Speech by Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski at the Atlantic Council
26.02.2024
On Monday, February 26, Minister Sikorski took part as the keynote speaker in a discussion combined with a lecture at the Atlantic Council, Washington DC.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
I will be discussing issues of national interests, international alliances, how to beat dictators, win freedom, stability and strength.
But let me start on a personal note.
Although I am Poland’s foreign minister, my wife is American and one of our sons is actually an American soldier. My heart and my duty is to Poland but my interest lies also in keeping America prosperous and confident enough to stay faithful to its allies.
I grew up in a Poland that was still a Soviet colony. After decades of struggle we won our independence. Partly thanks to America, Poland has joined the larger family of democratic nations, and my own family has joined yours.
Not everybody celebrated our victory. In 2005 Vladimir Putin said the collapse of the USSR was – and I quote – “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century”. His invasion of Ukraine is part of an effort to restore the power and cruelty of what president Ronald Reagan called “the evil empire”.
But he is not alone. The murderous invasion of Ukraine is aided and abetted by a crime family of dictators primarily in Iran and North Korea but also lauded by, among others, those ruling Cuba, Venezuela and Syria. Putin in turn helps his fellow despots fuel chaos in the Middle East, Asia and here on the American southern border. He welcomes Hamas in Moscow, and his propaganda supports these terrorists.
China helps Russia economically, and in turn benefits from cheap oil and gas that Putin is selling to fund his war machine. They all desire to destroy the stability America worked so hard to create through victory in the Second World War and the Cold War.
All this is now under threat. But we can still set it right.
There are only three steps separating us from a more secure and stable world. Take them together and we will prove we can stand up for our interests and defeat dictators. Fail and we invite more thugs onto the world stage. What are these steps?
First, back Ukrainians with the ammo they urgently need;
Second, invest in our security to create a deterrence so powerful it dwarfs Putin and his cronies;
Third, deepen and widen our alliances to secure a lasting peace from a position of strength.
We need to take these steps not to escalate the war in Ukraine but to prevent an even bigger, global conflict, which currently slides ever closer towards all of us.
In what follows, even if you contest some of the arguments I make as a politician, please do not doubt that as a father I have no desire to see my son deployed to fight Putin’s aggression.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Winston Churchill once observed that “You can always count on the Americans to do the right thing after they have tried everything else”.
Well, it turns out that sometimes even Churchill was wrong. When Putin launched his full scale invasion of Ukraine, he thought America would show weakness. Instead, America was the first to do the right thing and made sure Ukraine got the backing it needed. The use of American intelligence to warn Ukraine and deprive Putin of casus belli was brave and brilliant. I would like to thank the American intelligence community.
Then, the U.S. – with overwhelming cross-party support – invested over 75 billion dollars, including 46 billion in military assistance[1]. This bipartisan effort should not be forgotten. Thank you.
Inspired by U.S. leadership, the European Union and its member states rose to the occasion, pulling together an even higher amount: 92 billion dollars. 33 billion in economic and humanitarian support; 18.5 billion in supporting the refugees fleeing the war; 10 billion in the form of grants, loans and guarantees. And almost 30 billion in military support[2]. This month the EU passed another 50 billion package.
This coalition of strength and solidarity is not limited to the U.S. and Europe.
Democracies on the other side of the globe – Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand – soon joined. They saw obvious parallels in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the assertiveness of China.
It was a sound investment. The Ukrainians fought back hard to retrieve 50 percent of their lands occupied by Russia.
And in the liberated areas, what they have witnessed made them even more determined.
Putin’s army left behind towns and villages full of atrocities we thought gone from Europe. Mutilated bodies were scattered on the streets of Bucha and Irpin, just 15 miles from the heart of the Ukrainian state. Victims of rapes and indiscriminate bombardments, including pregnant women in maternity hospitals.
And on top of all that the systemic, mass abduction of tens of thousands of children from their families to forcibly turn them into Russians.
This is what Putin has in mind for Ukraine as a whole. He seeks to oppress an entire country with a pre-war population exceeding 40 million people and territory the size of Utah, Nebraska and Missouri combined.
Unless he is stopped – he will continue his cruel march of cruelty.
Russia may have suffered over 350 000 casualties – but in a dictatorship, human life is cheap. Putin has crushed dissidents, murdered Alexey Navalny, moved the country’s economy to a war footing, boosted production of artillery shells, rockets, munitions. Around the clock, Russia has started building more factories and running its existing plants on triple shifts[3].
During my last visit to Kyiv in December, Ukrainians described how the invaders were so much better equipped, they fired 8 artillery rounds to every 1 the defenders could muster. That’s no way to win.
Putin isn’t working alone. Today many bombs falling on Ukrainian schools, churches, apartment blocks and markets come in the form of Iranian drones and hypersonic missiles with microchips smuggled in through China. More recently North Korea has sent long range weapons to sow terror among civilians.
This mix of terrorists and dictators are united by one thing – their hatred of America and democracy. Hatred fuelled by fear.
They’re hungry to show that the U.S. is weak, ineffective, and hopelessly divided. That America can no longer act effectively, or be a force for good in the world.
Ukraine is a test case for them. All are eagerly watching to see if Putin can crush its freedom – and our resolve.
The invasion of Ukraine is by no means a regional squabble. It is a war with global consequences.
If we choose to abandon Ukraine, Putin will come to understand – as will other adversaries around the world – that he can do whatever he wants, wherever he wants, however he wants.
He will push up much closer against the borders of NATO states, threatening further military incursions in Europe where our children will have to fight him. After all Putin has openly stated that the Russian border “doesn't end anywhere”.
Losing to him will open the gates to more chaos, more instability, more wars.
Americans, more than anyone, understand that.
A poll conducted last October found that 84 percent of U.S. voters believe the Russian leader is a threat to American interests. They are right.
In the same poll 71 percent said that Ukraine should win the war. They are right.
And 68 percent said that a Russian victory over Ukraine would make the world less stable. Again, they are absolutely right[4].
Americans from across the country, both Republicans and Democrats, all agree that Putin must be defeated.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
I realize that appeasement may seem an easier path but it is in fact a dead end.
If America cannot come together with Europe and enable Ukraine to drive Putin back, I fear that our family of democratic nations will start to break up. Allies will look for other ways to guarantee their safety. Some of them will aim for the ultimate weapon starting off a new nuclear race.
All this can be stopped.
Putin has a great weakness. He attacks only when he thinks he can get away with it. He shrinks back in the face of strength, willpower and credible deterrence.
Here’s just one example.
At the start of the war, Russian warships illegally blockaded Ukraine’s ports, stopping Ukrainian grain from sailing out to feed the world.
But, supported by American investment, Ukrainians have pioneered the use of sea drones. They zip unseen across the waters of the Black Sea to strike at Putin’s warships. 25% of this once mighty fleet is now disabled.
Ukraine’s grain exports via the Black Sea have almost returned to pre-war levels[5].
When American and European investment is combined with Ukrainian innovation and courage, Putin retreats. Let’s help Ukraine become his nemesis.
***
The first step to defeating Russia is to immediately supply Ukraine with the ammo it needs.
Many Americans, however, are asking – at what price?
Quite low, actually.
Over two years the U.S. has contributed roughly 5 percent of its annual military budget in security assistance. And with that money Ukraine has already managed to destroy Putin’s combat capacity by 50%. Without any American troops firing a single shot. A truly stunning return on investment.
Most of this money is spent here in the U.S. According to some analyses up to 90 percent goes directly to create American jobs on American soil.
Researchers at the American Enterprise Institute have identified – and I quote – “117 production lines in at least 31 states and 71 cities where Americans are producing major weapons systems for Ukraine”[6]. You can find them in deeply blue states like California, deeply red states like Mississippi and purple states like Pennsylvania, or Ohio where Abrams tanks are made.
Much of the newly made equipment ends up not in Ukraine but in the hands of American soldiers. It replaces stockpiles of older weaponry already sent to help defeat Putin’s invasion.
American investment in Ukraine’s capacity to defend itself is literal proof that “by helping others you help yourself”. Helping Ukraine is not only a good deed. It’s a good deal.
***
At this moment only America has the military capacity and might to enable Ukraine so that she can survive this dangerous moment. This urgent action is a life-saving bridge.
On the other side, the nations of Europe are ramping up to build a deterrence that together with America can contain Putin in the long-run and stand up to future threats across the world.
This is the second step to victory.
Let us imagine a scale of investment in security that dwarfs Putin and other dictators. The production vital for our security should be based in America and among allied nations. This ‘friendshoring’ will ensure that we are not, as we are now, at risk from supply chains that rely on our adversaries, and which they could subvert at any vital moment.
This is the path to security in the 21st century. We should be driving it forward together.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Over the years subsequent presidential administrations have expressed their exasperation with European countries not sharing an equal burden of defending freedom and maintaining peace.
Here’s some good news. We heard you and it is happening.
In recent years, many European countries have increased their military budgets, some of them significantly. Poland has doubled its defence spending to almost four percent of its GDP – the highest among all NATO members, including the U.S.!
Where are we spending the money? Between 2018 and 2022, 56 percent of imported military equipment came to Poland from the U.S. We are buying Abrams tanks, HIMARS launchers, F-35s, Patriot batteries, Apache helicopters and many others.
The contracts recently signed add up to 34 billion dollars.
Other European countries that donated their weapons to Ukraine are replenishing their stocks with American gear, thus creating another stream of money flowing to the American people. We are also re-building Europe’s defence industrial base.
This trajectory needs to continue. Putin and his henchmen must realize they can neither outproduce nor outlast us.
Together we are much stronger than the enemy. Our collective GDP is vastly greater than Putin’s.
The numbers speak for themselves. We have the drones, we can have the ammo, we have the money too. All that is needed to win is our will to act.
Only if we remain determined, can we take the third step to victory and achieve peace through strength.
We have before.
In 1999, exactly a quarter of a century ago, Poland was invited to join NATO and the transatlantic family.
Twenty five years later, not least because of the security guarantees NATO provides, we have become the fifth largest economy of the European Union, and the main buyer of U.S. military equipment in Europe.
Victorious Ukraine may follow a similar path.
***
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Whether we want it or not Putin’s decision to start the biggest war in Europe since the defeat of Nazi Germany has already changed the course of history. It is up to us to decide if we want to shape that course ourselves, or let it be shaped by others – in Moscow, Teheran or Beijing.
Helping Ukraine by defeating Putin is the right thing to do in the broadest sense of the word.
It is morally sound, strategically wise, militarily justified and economically beneficial.
It outweighs politics. It transcends partisanship.
Now is the moment to act. Let's get this done.
[1] https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-aid-has-us-sent-ukraine-here-are-six-charts
[2] https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/eu-solidarity-ukraine/
[3] https://edrmagazine.eu/russias-defence-industry-gears-up-for-a-long-war
[4] https://www.razomforukraine.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/SURVEY-ONE-PAGER_Ukraine-October-2023-FINAL-_FOR-MEDIA.pdf
[5] https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/01/17/7437681/; Also: “Ukraine has managed to boost its Black Sea grain exports to a level not seen since before Russia's invasion, although the Red Sea shipping crisis poses a new challenge to its crucial agricultural trade” [https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/ukraines-black-sea-grain-export-success-tested-by-red-sea-crisis-2024-01-24/].