• On 29 March 2019 rating agency Fitch announced a decision about keeping Poland’s credit rating unchanged at the level of A-/F2 for long and short term liabilities, respectively, in foreign currency and A-/F1 for long and short term liabilities, respectively, in local currency.
• Rating’s outlook remained at a stable level.

Fitch rating agency in its press release justifying the decision indicates strong macro fundamentals and well diversified economy, underpinned by sound economic policy framework and strong banking sector. Agency pointed to a good fiscal situation of Poland in 2018. It mentioned tax collection as one of the contributors to low budget deficit. Fitch forecasts general government deficit to GDP below 3% in the years 2019 – 2020 at the level of 2.2% and 2.8%, respectively. General government’s debt to GDP ratio in the years 2019 – 2020 will remain below 50%.

Rating prospects

According to the agency, Poland’s rating could be raised as a result of further sustained reduction in net external debt to GDP towards countries with ‘A’ category or fiscal consolidation that will lead to a sustained decline in public debt to GDP. Additionally, rating could be higher as a result of GDP growth supporting faster income convergence towards countries with ‘A’ category. On the other hand, rating could be lowered in case of failure to stabilise debt to GDP ratio in the medium term or weaker macro-economic policy framework, potentially resulting in lower GDP growth. Rating could be also lower if governance standards or the business climate will lead to an adverse impact on the economy.