• On 8 November 2024 rating agency Fitch announced a decision about keeping Poland’s credit rating unchanged at the level of A-/F1 for long and short term liabilities, respectively, in foreign currency and A-/F1 for long and short term liabilities in local currency.
• Rating’s outlook remained at a stable level.

Poland's rating is supported by a large, diversified and resilient economy ,track record of fairly sound macroeconomic policies anchored by EU membership, solid external finances and a higher and more stable government revenue base than peers. These are balanced against wider fiscal deficits, lower (albeit rising) income levels and weaker governance indicators. For 2024, Fitch forecasts the general government deficit to rise to 6.2% of GDP (from 5.3% in 2023). Fitch expects cutting the fiscal deficit to 5.0% by 2026 (‘A’ median 2.7%) and then further to 3.7% by 2028.

Agency projects annual growth of 3% in 2024,rising to 3.6% in 2025 and 3.4% in 2026, despite fiscal consolidation headwinds. The pick-up to be driven by EU fund inflows and external demand recovery.

Rating prospects

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive rating action/upgrade are the following: fiscal consolidation over the medium term that leads to a firm decline in the government debt/GDP ratio; significant improvement in governability, reflecting a sustained easing of political polarisation and/ or improvements in the policy framework and rule of law; sustained higher GDP growth, leading to faster income convergence towards ‘A’ category median, supported by policies that do not lead to macroeconomic, fiscal or external imbalances.

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative rating action/downgrade are: failure to consolidate public finances that reduces confidence in the government’s ability to stabilize public debt over the medium-term at a level close to the peers; materially lower medium-term growth prospects, for example due to an erosion in competitiveness.