Public awareness of the importance of air quality for health and the environment is growing, as is the need for information on the state of pollution. More and more mobile applications and web portals are being developed, but the available measurements enable their users to check the condition of air quality on an ongoing basis, which makes it impossible to plan activities in advance. Information about changes in the following days and hours is particularly important for athletes and fitness aficionados, as well as for the elderly, the sick, pregnant women and parents with young children, or in other words, all social groups particularly exposed to the adverse effects of pollution.

The response to the growing need for information on the risk of high concentrations of pollutants is the publication of air quality forecasts, which can be developed using the mathematical modelling method

Starting on the 1st of January this year, the provisions of the amended Environmental Protection Act came into force, which imposed the obligation of mathematical modelling, both for the purpose of preparing short-term forecasts and annual air quality assessments, on the Institute of Environmental Protection – National Research Institute (IOŚ-PIB). Entrusting the state institution with these tasks, thanks to the unification of air quality modelling methodology, makes it possible to carry out air quality assessments and thus to take appropriate corrective actions.

The aim of the changes is to improve the quality of atmospheric air research, as well as to strengthen the system for assessing the impact of pollution on the environment and human health. It is about taking effective measures to improve air quality management, the Minister of Environment Henryk Kowalczyk emphasised.

The introduced changes will enable free and universal access to uniform and consistent information on the distribution of concentrations of air pollutants and forecasts of air quality for all citizens throughout the country, added Vice-Minister Sławomir Mazurek.

The forecasting system developed by the Institute of Environmental Protection – National Research Institute is based on a deterministic model of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry, which enables performing calculations on a local, regional and global scale. Since the quality of air quality modelling results depends on detailed and reliable information on pollution emission sources, a Central Emission Database was created, maintained by the National Centre for Emission Balancing and Management (KOBiZE), functioning within the structures of the Institute of Environmental Protection – National Research Institute. The Central Emission Database gathers information on emissions from industrial and energy sources, heating, transport, agriculture and natural sources.

The tasks related to air quality modelling performed so far have been carried out separately by individual voivodeships, with the use of diverse data sets concerning both pollutant emissions (with varying degree of completeness) and computation tools, which could result in a lack of continuity in the spatial distribution of pollutant concentrations on a national scale, as well as in a lack of time cohesion allowing for the analysis of trends in air quality changes across the entire country, noted the Director of the Institute of Environmental Protection – National Research Institute, Krystian Szczepański.

The modelling results are presented daily to the Chief Inspectorate of Environmental Protection to supplement the measurements carried out by the State Environmental Monitoring (PMŚ) network. The provided data concern pollutants such as PM10 particulate matter, NO2 (nitrogen dioxide), SO2 (sulphur dioxide) (during the winter period from October to March), O3 (tropospheric ozone) (during the summer period from April to September).

Using the values of concentrations of other predicted pollutants, the Institute of Environmental Protection – National Research Institute evaluates the general level of exposure, expressed as the Polish Air Quality Index, defined on the website of the Chief Inspectorate of Environmental Protection and used to calculate the index on the basis of measurements from the State Environmental Monitoring stations.

Moreover, for the needs of the Government Centre for Security, the spatial scope of the predicted exceeding of the limit value, as well as information threshold or alarm threshold for individual pollutant concentrations are calculated.

Forecasts are presented at www.powietrze.gios.gov.pl i www.ios.gov.pl/jakosc-powietrza . The data is updated daily in the morning, for the next three days ("today- tomorrow- the day after tomorrow").

The Institute of Environmental Protection – National Research Institute website hosts:

• average daily index map for the next three days;
• trend of index changes in voivodeship cities;
• animation of the index distribution over Poland.

It is planned that air quality projections will be complemented by additional information and functionalities to further tailor them to the needs of society.