This year's report presents 3 scenarios:

• the direction in which the energy sector is currently heading, based on the latest market data, technology costs and an in-depth analysis of prevailing policies in countries around the world (Stated Policies Scenario - STEPS);
• a scenario based on meeting all national energy and climate targets set by governments, including the achievement of net zero emissions targets (Announced Pledges Scenario - APS);
• a scenario based on achieving net-zero emissions by mid-century in a way that limits global warming to 1.5 °C, based on the assumption of net-zero emissions by 2050 (Zero Net Emissions by 2050 - NZE).

Debate on the WEO 2024 report

On 18 December 2024, a debate on Poland’s energy transition in light of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2024 (WEO) report was held at the headquarters of the Ministry of Climate and Environment. The discussion was attended by experts from the energy sector: representatives of the government, energy sector companies and think tanks, as well as Laura Cozzi, Director of Sustainability, Technology and Perspectives at the IEA, responsible for the preparation of the WEO.

The coming years will be dominated by fierce competition for critical raw materials and the technologies needed to meet climate and energy targets. At the same time, the situation in the oil and gas market is likely to move towards a buyer’s market over the coming five to seven years, offering a potential buffer against disruption and putting downward pressure on prices. The EU should use this time to invest wisely in the energy transition and narrow the competitiveness gap for European companies in global markets. The key challenge will be to identify those sectors where the EU can maintain or build market advantage and target investment streams towards them

- said Laura Cozzi.

The discussion was moderated by Director Adrian Kondaszewski of the Department of International Affairs of the MCE, who emphasised that the two key issues addressed in the latest IEA report, i.e. the need to enhance energy security and the competitiveness and resilience of the European economy, will also be the goals of the Polish Presidency of the Council of the EU, starting in January 2025.

Competitiveness in the coming years will be determined by the speed of decarbonisation and the transition to new low- and zero-carbon technologies

- said Kondaszewski.

The debate also focused on forecasts regarding the pace of the global shift away from fossil fuels, the production of critical raw materials and minerals and the cost of investment in grids and networks. During the discussion, it was highlighted that together with nuclear power, which is the subject of renewed interest in many countries, low-carbon sources are expected to generate more than half of the world's electricity before 2030.